Gildan Activewear - Price Targets

G Gildan Activewear ( GIL on the NYSE and Toronto)
Sterne Agee Group has raised its target price to $40
Desjardins Securities has a $43 target.
The Company is a manufacturer of t- shirts and recently has expanded into socks with the purchase of two U.S. based manufacturers. This allows Gildan increased distribution for its products - socks, underwear, tees ,sweatshirts and a major push into private labels. It will now be one of the largest suppliers to Target and Wal-Mart through the recent purchases. Gildan management has shown itself adept at meeting and beating Asian and other low cost competition. The continues expansion meets its stated desire to become a major force in retail distribution of a full range of products. They are the low cost producer and have , in the past moved high price production off shore to maintain their prices and their customers. The integration of the newly acquired manufacturers should produce cost savings for Gildan.

Earnings per share
2006 Actual $1.03
2007 Estimate $1.28
2008 Estimate $1.89
2009 Estimate $2.26

Price Earnings Ratio
2006 Actual 30.7
2008 Estimate 24.7

taken from the article at http://www.amprogram.com Sept 26

War with Iran

The weekend paper carried a story that had advances on the tensions over Irans' nuclear program:
1 ) Condoleezza Rice apparently has made "peace " with the Vice- President .
Cheney is leading the hawks in the planning and rhetoric. This was an effort to paper over divisions in the white House.
2) Mondays headline in the National Post quotes the French Foreign minister : " Prepare for War With Iran " The story also says France is advising Total and others not to bid on contracts in Iran
3) U.N. will be meeting to press more severe restrictions on Iran The effect on oil will be to keep the political pressure on high prices. If the U.N. agrees to oil sale restrictions against Iran prices will rocket past $100 and if there is a shooting war to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities ????????

from http://www.amprogram.com Sept 18

Baidu

. Baidu .com - The Chinese version of Google RBC sees favorable trends and a target of $333 a potential 40 % plus gain
Three Year projected earnings per share growth 83% Key Points in the RBC Review 3rd Quarter 2007 tracking well in ad growth 60 % of the Chinese search market -
Leverage from low cost labor Travel and education segments are growing Each month is stronger sequentially than the prior month
Employment level is 5000 and rising - shows management confidence - 70% are in sales and customer service
Revenue 2006 A 105.7 MM 2007 E 231.4 2208 E 436.2 rising to 687 in 2009
Earnings per share ( OP) 2006 A 1.26 P/E NM 2007 E 2.14 P/E NM 2008 E 4.91 P/E 47.8 dropping to 30.1 in 2009
Rating : Outperform

What would Warren Buffett Do ?

Dow Down almost 300 points Tuesday , Fear Grips the Little Investor Housing sales news - weak as expected. Federal Reserve Bank statement acknowledges economy is slowing. - but a lack of clarity as to a rate cuts disappointed investors. The Key Question : WWWD What would Warren Do ? Warren Buffett announced the purchase of 10 Million shares of Sante Fe RR WHAT DID YOU DO ?

The Key Question in a time of volatility .
The answer is back to basics-
Good companies, solid fundamentals , great management - no need to fear market noise.

Source http://www.amprogram.com August 29

China Copper Imports Surge

D. Copper Demand in China up 65 % - helps lift our AMP Portfolio Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Copper in New York rose for the fourth-straight session as demand surged in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal. China's refined-copper imports in July jumped 65 percent from a year earlier, the Beijing-based customs office said today. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said global demand for commodities remains strong, driven by China. Copper, used in pipes and wires, has risen fourfold in the past four years as demand outpaced supplies. ``Globally, demand is holding up well,'' said John Gross, publisher of the Copper Journal in Cranston, Rhode Island. ``The environment is still one that would suggest continued strength in prices and volatile trading.'' Breakwater - BWR has a major expansion underway = major cash flow expansion HudBay ( HBM) Teck - Cominco ( TCK.B ) - anounced the success of th Aur bid $ 4.$ Billion this adds 43 % to Teck's copper production

Oilexco returns to Drilling

A. Oilexco Returns to Drilling - you should be returning to Oilexco Oilexco ( OIL on Toronto and London ) has the cash flow on a daily 30,000 Barrel production and the potential of the drill bit: Investors are less anxious and have been bargain hunting the stock Focus on the 2008 cash flow estimate of $4.00 plus - the stock is cheap thanks to the recent fire and general market fears. CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Aug. 21, 2007) - Oilexco Incorporated (TSX:OIL) (LSE:OIL) ("Oilexco" or "the Company") and its wholly owned subsidiary, Oilexco North Sea Limited, reports that the semi-submersible rig Ocean Guardian, which is under contract to the Company from Diamond Offshore Drilling UK Limited, has resumed appraisal drilling on the 100% owned Shelley oil accumulation on Blocks 22/2b and 22/3a. The vessel suspended drilling last week when an electrical fire occurred in the engine room. There were no injuries or environmental damage reported as a result of the fire, and the well being drilled by the Ocean Guardian remained under control throughout the entire time. Members from Diamond Offshore Drilling UK Limited, Oilexco North Sea Limited and personnel from the UK Health and Safety Executive traveled on board the vessel to investigate the cause, inspect the damage and review the safety procedures following the incident.
from http://www.amprogram.com

Niko Resources - world class nat gas producer in India

B . Niko Resources*Give me a sign, any sign!When markets sell off like they did last week, any positive sign should be taken to heart. Niko, which recently raised $500-million by issuing 4.762 million shares at $105.00 apiece, has seen its shares tumble with the market downturn. Shares are down about 20% from were Niko raised their money. Insider reports, which were filed late last week, show Niko’s President and CEO buying nearly $1 million (12,600 common shares at prices ranging from $79.30-79.90) of stock through the public market. That’s a nice sign. The current market weakness may have created a buying opportunity. Canaccord Adams Oil & Gas Analyst Terry Peters says that while equity markets are struggling, Niko’s fundamentals are on solid ground. The company has over $600 million in cash, will have access to another $600 million through its credit facility, and is less than 12 months away from the start up of the largest offshore gas field in India that at its current planned peak, would take Niko’s total production to over 450 mmcf/d over the next 24 months, from the current 85 mmcf/d. In addition, the exploration component in Niko continues to provide high-impact potential, through additional drilling at D6, NEC25, D4, Cauvery, and in time Pakistan.
from http:www.amprogram.com

Follow - up on Oilexco ( OIL on Toronto and London)

B. Oilexco expands assets in the North Sea - $50 Million purchase The market reaction to this news ? A sell off along with everything else that could be sold. Then a recovery - still down on the day BUT what a bargain: Another analyst Fred Kozak raised his twelve month target to $21.00 based on the news set out in the next paragraph. That is in line with Joseph Schacteres $20 target made before this deal was announced. The purchase gives control of an adjoining field and production of an additional 1800 BOECALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Aug. 15, 2007) - Oilexco Incorporated ("Oilexco" or "the Company") (TSX:OIL) (LSE:OIL) announces that its wholly owned subsidiary, Oilexco North Sea Limited, has signed a Sale and Purchase Agreement ("SPA") with CNR International (U.K.) Limited ("CNR") for the acquisition of CNR's entire interests in the Balmoral Floating Production Vessel ("FPV"); and the Balmoral, Glamis and Stirling Fields, which currently produce approximately 1,800 barrels of oil per day, net to CNR; and certain exploration acreage, all located in Block 16/21 in the UK Central North Sea ("the Balmoral Properties").
am looking for the stock as a three year hold ( at least ) . The present production is 30,000 BOE plus and 2010 ( according to Schacter will be 100,000 BOE. Fantastic play on the oil price that will exist in three years. A link to oil prices can be found in the Links section in the right hand margin of this blog. The additional drilling will add to that production. At a 4 times cash flow in 2010 - the stock may hit $ 60 - $70.

Warren Buffet Speaks

Warren Speaks - WWWD ( What Would Warren ( Buffett Do ?)

direct information from the Oracle of Omaha - from the blog www.amprogram.com


Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the investment firm run by Warren Buffett, bought stakes in Dow Jones & Co. and Bank of America Corp. and more than quadrupled its holdings of health insurers UnitedHealth Group and WellPoint Inc.

Berkshire hadn't previously disclosed the stakes in Dow Jones, owner of the Wall Street Journal, and Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank, though it's unclear when the company acquired the positions. As of June 30, Berkshire held 2.78 million shares of Dow Jones and 8.7 million shares of Bank of America, the Omaha, Nebraska-based firm said in a filing today.

Fed Rescue = Increased Inflation

Beware the Trojan horse of easy money.
Billions of dollars added by the central banks around the world on Friday - particularly in the U.S. and Europe will result in increased inflation.
They may not have had a choice in the efffort to end financial gridlock but there will be unintended consequences for us all , as a result.The U.S. dollar will keep sliding - and this may accelerate if the Fed cuts interest ratesin September or earlier.Commodities - dominated in U.S. dollars will rise - hence golds increase on Friday.Stay with the resources like oil , copper , zinc and the producers who mine them - see the AMP Portfolio at the market blog http://www.amprogram.com

Antrim Energy ( AEN on Toronto)

When the correction takes 400 points off the Dow it is more than interesting that Antrim is up today .
Antrim has found oil in the North Sea - like Oilexco - and similarly continues to drill.
In addition it has projects in Argentina - rumors of oil only at this point.In this correction - pick up the stongest candidates - they will rise more when the trend goes positive.
Part 2
My favorite question , in these trying days - WWWD ? ( seehttp://www.amprogram.com) -
meaning What Would Warren ( Buffett) Do - you can be sure he's hunting the bargains - follow his example.

Uranium Sector Recovers

B. Uranium Sector Uranium has been hard hit over the last several months. The absolute certainty that any stock with " uranium " in its name would rise ended when the commodity price started to reverse. It has gone down another $10.00 this week to $110.- from a high of over $130 Junior companies with no production or likelihood of production were the hardest hit. The AMP sold most of its basket but retains small positions in three companies - often discussed in past columns. How good was today? so good that even the uranium sector was up. Uranium One SXR 11.50 up .33Denison ( DML) DML 10.21 up .35Pinetree Capital ( PNP) 8.63 up .15 When the tide is that strong it carries the garbage out to sea-and I mean that with the greatest respect - I own all three of the above-noted. It's just been a long time since they have been positive. I will wait until the sector turns on a longer term before adding to these names and rebuying the others I sold off during the last two months. At this point stay with producers and near term producers.

Will the stock market rall continue ?

E. Will the Rally Continue What will Tomorrow Bring ? Don't throw away caution. Volatility remains - the sub-prime mess remains, we have no way of knowing how exposed the banks are to the credit meltdown. Look at the stocks that benefit from the global economy - as we discussed above. They are generating cash and have little to do with the subprime slime - unless an actual U.S. recession appears. In the event of further deterioration in the U.S. financial sector a Fed mandated rate cut will rescue the sector and the stock market. In the meantime - don't be a hero. Don't try and guess which bank or homebuilder or mortgage insurer will pick up the pieces of the fallen. Watch the after hours earnings announcements - positive announcements point to a positive start to the day. Don't be complacent - as we saw - a mere rumour that Goldman Sach would make a negative announcement cost the market 100 points until the rumour was announced as false.

from the stock blog www.amprogram.com

Is the Correction Over ?

.1. Is The Correction Over? " Is that all there is - if that's all there is then - let's keep investing ." Fearless novice investor Peggy Lee Our last blog was a " buy " signal because the markets were oversold. Monday was an important rally point because it followed on the heels of a large decline ( Friday). But is this second day ( Tuesday August 2nd) without a calamity a reason to say it's all clear and reason to enter the buy side with a vengeance? The market is driven to extremes by fear and greed. When fear dominated there was a near 300 point drop on the Dow. The reasons for the drop - mainly a credit crunch , sub-prime worries, economic slowdown- are well founded. The U.S. business community can't exist if banks simply withdraw credit to all but the Triple A clientele. You can't allow a million homes to go into foreclosure without seeing a broad effect on the economy. Still some believe the size and strength of the economy will power through these problems. If that reasoning is correct , the market is oversold and should see retail and instituional investors re-enter - now in fear of losing out on the next leg up- that is greed will replace fear. In fact one commentator said that Fridays fall of 268 points was a market capitulation - meaning all the sellers who wanted out are washed out - only buyers remain. The Future is Uncertain - until it is the Past

Stay away from Natural Gas Producers

from amprogram.com The AMP has sold out of the nat gas sector - still bullish on oil.

But - we do not like Natural Gas The number one position on the watchlist for nat gas stocks is Peyto (PEY.UN) . simply one of the best run natural gas producers in Canada. Their President's position in a recent release was although the short term price was not good , the long term price and long term reserves would do well for the Company. As an investor , I believe that analysis is correct - but my money can be working elsewhere today - and be in the nat gas sector - when and if the turn occurs. Many small natural gas exploration/producer companies rely on a " friendly " banker to stay in the business. Today’s prices do not make for great profit reports - the banks are going to be less friendly. Credit is being tightened and this sector has little to recommend it - except the potential of hurricanes and a dreadful winter. That is not much security for the bank or you and me

Jim Cramer Misery Index

NOTE This is a listing - not a ranking - of misery. This list could also be titled "Bottom Fishing Watchlist - Watch- DO NOT BUY -yet)

Complete list at www.amprogram.com for August 7th,2007
Name
Symbol
Price ( August 3/07 )
Change
1) MGIC Investments
(MTG)
$33.85
- $ 1.63
2) Country Wide Financial
(CFC)
25.00
- 1.77

Western Financial Group

Western Financial Group ( WES)

OUR PICK TO DOUBLE BY 2010
An ambitious small cap - a five year plan to extend their reach
Focused in western Canada - and specifically in small towns not serviced by larger firms
Safe Harbor - insurance -,banking and investments
Growth in the fastest growing areas of Canada
Growth has been amazing - but it does state at a small base
The March 31 numbers show:
Consolidated revenue grew by 38%
Net income was up 122%
Per share that meant $.06 - up from .04
Watch for the next release mid August 2007- for confirmation of the trends

Oilexco - hold for the rally over 3 years

Oilexco now produces 35,000 BOE
Schacter predicts 100,000 BOE in 2010
Cash flow in 2010 - at $70 oil will be more than todays price
At 4 - 5 times cash flow we are looking for a selling price of $52- 60
Hold on provided:
Production/drilling and cash flow follow the projections